2016考研英語精品閱讀：英國人口普查

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WHEN the first results of the 2011 census were published, almost two years ago, the moststriking discovery was straightforward. Britain's population, it turned out, was around500,000 bigger than statisticians had thought. For all that Britons are relentlessly surveyed,only a full count could reveal the size of the country, yet alone that of individual cities, townsand neighbourhoods.

約兩年前，當(dāng)2011年人口普查的數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布時，最令人吃驚的發(fā)現(xiàn)是十分顯而易見的。結(jié)果顯示英國人口比統(tǒng)計學(xué)家預(yù)計的竟多了約500，000人。鑒于所有的英國人都被調(diào)查過了，除了個別一些城市、城鎮(zhèn)和居民區(qū)，只有一次完整的計數(shù)能揭示這個國家真正的規(guī)模。

Given that finding, the proposal made in 2010 by an austerity-minded coalition government toscrap Britain's decennial census seemed odd. It now looks as though the census will surviveafter all. On March 27th the Office for National Statistics (ONS) concluded that a full populationcount is still necessary, though many people will in future be asked to fill in the census online.In all likelihood, the government will follow its recommendations. Academics, marketresearchers and social historians breathed a sigh of relief.

鑒于此發(fā)現(xiàn)，這一聯(lián)合政府于2010年提出的要取消英國十年一度人口普查的提議看起來有些古怪。如今看來人口普查是要被保留下來了。3月27日，國家統(tǒng)計局(ONS)得出的結(jié)論是盡管未來很多人將被要求在線填寫人口普查調(diào)查表，進行一次完整的人口調(diào)查仍是必要的。不出意外的話，政府將會遵循它的提議。學(xué)者、市場調(diào)研員和社會歷史學(xué)家終于松了口氣。

Scrapping the census in favour of rolling surveys of a portion of the population was always asilly idea. A full count can provide information at the level of a single street, which even verylarge surveys could never do. The census also supplies detailed data about poorly understoodgroups of people, such as some ethnic minorities. Each year billions of pounds of governmentspending are allocated according to estimates derived from the census. Its data determinewhere new schools and hospitals are built, where planning permission for housing is grantedand where money is spent on transport.

取消人口普查，轉(zhuǎn)而贊成對部分人口進行滾動調(diào)查的想法是愚蠢的。一次完整的計數(shù)可以提供小至一條街的信息，這是連許多大規(guī)模調(diào)查都無法媲美的。人口普查也可為我們提供那些外界知之甚少的群體的詳細數(shù)據(jù)，如一些少數(shù)族群。政府依據(jù)人口普查得出的估算來決策每年數(shù)十億英鎊的支出應(yīng)撥向何處。這一數(shù)據(jù)決定何處應(yīng)建立新學(xué)校和醫(yī)院，何處應(yīng)許可進行住房規(guī)劃，以及何處應(yīng)加強交通建設(shè)。

The census is hardly perfect. It is expensive—the 2011 edition cost around 480m (800m). Itsfindings go out of date quickly. And it is increasingly difficult to conduct, as a rising proportionof people do not fill in their forms. In many European countries, including Germany and theNetherlands, the authorities use administrative data collected by public bodies in place of atraditional census.

人口普查并不十全十美。它花費高昂——2011年版成本約為4億8千萬英鎊(8億美元)。調(diào)查的結(jié)果也很快就成為了明日黃花。由于不填寫表格的人越來越多，它的可操作性也越來越難了。在很多歐洲國家，包括德國和荷蘭，行政當(dāng)局選擇采用公共機構(gòu)提供的管理數(shù)據(jù)以代替?zhèn)鹘y(tǒng)的人口調(diào)查。

In Britain that would be tricky. The nation lacks a central population register or an identity-card system that would allow administrative data to be linked up. By northern Europeanstandards, Britain also has lots of irregular migrants who have little interaction with the state.That makes a full count unavoidable. Yet the authorities should still be investing in working outhow to use administrative data better, argues Chris Skinner, a statistician at the London Schoolof Economics. That would help to provide a check on the accuracy of census and surveydata, as well as providing timelier and more precise estimates in between census years.

在英國這將比較棘手。該國缺乏一個中央人口統(tǒng)計處或一個身份認(rèn)證系統(tǒng)來將管理數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)一起來。按照北歐的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，英國也有很多幾乎不與政府來往的非正規(guī)移民。這使得完整的人口普查不可避免。然而倫敦統(tǒng)計學(xué)院的統(tǒng)計學(xué)家克里斯·斯金納表示，當(dāng)局應(yīng)繼續(xù)研究該如何更好地利用管理數(shù)據(jù)。這將為人口普查和數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)查的準(zhǔn)確性把關(guān)，同時也可為兩次人口普查間的年份提供及時并更精確的估計。

The ONS agrees—and it is researching the possibility of using government data better. Thetrouble is that doing so will mean spending money, which is precisely what ministers wanted tostop doing when they pushed the ONS into thinking about cancelling the census. Data userswill be hoping that they have a change of heart. If not, Britain might be stuck with inadequatenumbers for decades to come.

國家統(tǒng)計局對此表示同意——它正在研究更好地利用政府?dāng)?shù)據(jù)的可能性。問題是這么做意味著要花錢，這正違背了部長們要求國家統(tǒng)計局取消人口普查的初衷。數(shù)據(jù)使用者們希望他們能換位思考一下。否則英國將在未來幾十年無法擺脫人口總數(shù)不準(zhǔn)確的困境。